Category: Home Buying Tips

Turkey, Money, COVID, and More

Kathryn Perkins

I’m thankful for you, reading this article. But I’m also thankful for turkey and potatoes and pecan pie. And in the spirit of Thanksgiving dinner, I’d like to serve you with a smorgasbord today. The appetizer comes from the engineering world. The main course brings in investing. And for dessert, I added a quick calculator to consider the risk of COVID at your Thanksgiving dinner.

Low and Slow

I’m a mechanical engineer. In the engineering sub-field of heat transfer, there’s an important quantity called the Biot number. The Biot (bee-yo) number compares the way heat enters a body at its surface against the way that heat travels through the body.

That might not make sense to you. That’s why the Biot number needs to be explained using food!

Why do we cook pizzas at 900ºF for 3 minutes? Great question, especially when compared against cooking turkeys at 350ºF for multiple hours.

Pizza has a small Biot number. It has a large surface area compared to its volume—it’s very thin. Any energy added to the pizza at its surface will quickly propagate to the center of the pie.

But turkey has a large Biot number. It’s roughly spherical, so its ratio of volume to surface area is vastly larger than a pizza’s. It takes time for energy added at the surface of the turkey to propagate to the center of the turkey.

Food pizza cooking GIF on GIFER - by Aragami

And then there’s the matter of mass. This is separate from the Biot number, but equally important. Cooking a 20-pound turkey will take longer than cooking a 1-pound pizza. That’s easily understood. Heavy stuff takes longer to warm up.

Potatoes and Pumpkin Bread

Why do I have to bake pumpkin bread at 325ºF for an hour? Why can’t I bake it for 450ºF for 40 minutes? Or in a pizza oven, at 900ºF for a few minutes?

I don’t recommend it, but it’s an experiment you could conduct yourself. You’d find that you’d overload the exterior of the loaf with heat before giving that heat enough time to propagate to the center of the loaf. The outside burns. The inside remains raw. And everyone’s sad at the lack of pumpkin bread.

Pumpkin bread GIFs - Get the best gif on GIFER

The more cubic or round or dense a food is, the more low-and-slow the cooking or baking will be. This applies to loaves of bread, cakes and pies, or dense cuts of meat. A meat smoker might run at 225ºF all day.

If a food is flat or thin or narrow, it can probably be cooked high and fast. Pizzas, bacon, stir fries all apply. Lots of surface area and lightweight.

But what about mashed potatoes? We only boil potatoes at 212ºF degrees for 15 minutes. That’s way colder and shorter than a turkey or pie. And potatoes are reasonably dense. What gives?

The answer is that water transfers heat more effectively than air. That’s why 60ºF air feels temperate to your skin, but 60ºF degree water is frigid. That’s why you can stick you bare hand in a 400ºF oven (for a few seconds), but sticking your hand in boiling water (212ºF) will scald you. Water moves heat better than air.

Snoop Dogg Adds Mayonnaise To His Mashed Potatoes And I'm Actually OK With It

And moving or flowing fluid transfers heat better than stagnant fluid. This is why cold winter air has a “wind chill” factor—the blowing cold air removes more heat from your skin that stagnant cold air. And those Thanksgiving potatoes are surrounded by boiling and roiling water. They cook quickly.

Invest Like a Turkey

Enough engineering. Let’s bring it back to money.

You can approach investing like baking a pizza. Or you can invest like you would cook a turkey. I recommend the turkey version.

Turkey Cooking GIFs | Tenor

You can (try to) pick stocks that will double overnight. Or you could explore exotic asset classes with promises of “going to the moon.” You can even borrow money—or leverage—to further extend your investments. This is investing like a pizzamaker. It’ll be hot and fast and potentially over in five minutes.

But sadly, historical context provides ample data suggesting that pizza investing is not effective. Hand-picking stocks has more risk than reward. Short-term flips are closer to gambling than to investing.

That’s why you should invest like a turkey. Low and slow and long-term. Check on your progress occasionally. Adjust your timeline if needed. A half-cooked turkey does not resemble your final product, just like a half-funded portfolio can’t support your retirement. But mostly, stay on plan and trust the process. Plan for the long-term and let time take care of the rest.

Use last week’s retirement calculator to plan for the long-term…starting with your savings goal for 2021.

A Plate Full of Stuffing

And speaking of Thanksgiving, ensure that your investing portfolio resembles a Thanksgiving plate: diverse and well-balanced.

Could you imagine eating 1500 calories worth of gravy? Well, maybe. But it would be accompanied by plenty of turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce and potatoes, too. You can even fit in a slice of something exotic, like pecan pie.

Thanksgiving Dinner GIFs | Tenor

Similarly, a well-balanced investment portfolio reduces your risk from being over-exposed to any single asset type. I described my personal choices in my “How I Invest” article. But there are many ways to skin a turkey, and many ways to diversify a portfolio.

Will Your Turkey Get COVID?

Everyone seems to be all huffy about gathering for Thanksgiving. So-called “experts” are saying the holiday will act as a super-spreading event for COVID. First, Starbucks cancelled Christmas. And now China is cancelling Thanksgiving? What’s up with that?!

Don’t be an ignoramus. For most of the United States, a gathering of 10 or more people has a higher than 50% chance to contain at least person who is positive for COVID. Re-read that sentence.

If you’re going to gather for Thanksgiving, it’s helpful to understand the risk involved. For some, the risk is small and reasonable. For others, the probability of COVID being at your gathering will easily surpass a coin flip.

The following calculator is a simple, first-order estimate. It provides an example of how probabilities work. There’s more explanation after the calculator.

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I’m not an epidemiologist or virologist. Please take this math at face value. If an area has a positive infection rate P, then then odds of a person being negative is 1-P. The odds that all N people at your gathering are negative is (1-P)^N. Therefore, the odds of at least one positive case at your Thanksgiving gathering is 1-(1-P)^N.

I recommend looking up your area’s positive case rate here—COVID ActNow. Now, a large positive test rate is just as indicative of insufficient testing as it is of high infection rates. If you only have enough test supplies to test the sickest people, then you’re likely to have a higher rate of positive infections. More reading here from a guy named Johns Hopkins.

So feel free to play around with the infection rate. The true infection rate of an area is likely lower than what’s reported on COVID ActNow.

Keep Grandma healthy!

Thanks Again

Thanks a ton for reading the Best Interest. I try to stuff this blog full of fun and helpful information, and having wonderful readers is the gravy on top.

I wish you a happy and healthy Thanksgiving. And don’t burn the pumpkin bread!

If you enjoyed this article and want to read more, I’d suggest checking out my Archive or Subscribing to get future articles emailed to your inbox.

This article—just like every other—is supported by readers like you.

Source: bestinterest.blog

7 Ways to Invest in Real Estate Without Buying Property

Kathryn Perkins

This page may include affiliate links. Please see the disclosure page for more information. How do many wealthy people get that way? They invest in real estate. It is a proven way to build wealth. 90% of millionaires became so through owning real estate. So said famous industrialist (and billionaire) Andrew Carnegie. Yet only 15% of Americans…

Read more

The post 7 Ways to Invest in Real Estate Without Buying Property appeared first on Debt Discipline.

7 Ways to Invest in Real Estate Without Buying Property was first posted on March 11, 2020 at 6:00 am.
©2019 "Debt Discipline". Use of this feed is for personal non-commercial use only. If you are not reading this article in your feed reader, then the site is guilty of copyright infringement. Please contact me at brian@debtdiscipline.com

Source: debtdiscipline.com

Traditional And Roth IRA Contribution Limits Announced

Kathryn Perkins

The contribution limits for the Roth IRA and Traditional IRA were just announced. Here’s what IRS limits are for the upcoming year.

The post Traditional And Roth IRA Contribution Limits Announced appeared first on Bible Money Matters and was written by Peter Anderson. Copyright © Bible Money Matters – please visit biblemoneymatters.com for more great content.

Source: biblemoneymatters.com

5 Best Hedges in the Face of Inflation

Kathryn Perkins

Inflation measures how much an economy rises over time, comparing the average price of a basket of goods from one point in time to another. Understanding inflation is an important element of investing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Inflation Calculator shows that $5.00 in September 2000 has the purchasing power equal to $7.49 in September 2020. To continue to afford necessities, your income must pace or rise above the rate of inflation. If your income didn’t rise along with inflation, you couldn’t afford that same pizza in September 2020 — even if your income never changed.

Inflation represents a real risk for investors as it could erode the principal value of your investment.

For investors, inflation represents a real problem. If your investment isn’t growing faster than inflation you could technically end up losing money instead of growing your wealth. That’s why many investors look for stable and secure places to invest their wealth. Ideally, in investment vehicles that guarantee a return that’ll outpace inflation. 

These investments are commonly known as “inflation hedges”. 

5 Top Inflations Hedges to Know

Depending on your risk tolerance, you probably wouldn’t want to keep all of your wealth in inflation hedges. Although they might be secure, they also tend to earn minimal returns. You’ll unlikely get rich from these assets, but it’s also unlikely you’ll lose money. 

Many investors turn to these secure investments when they notice an inflationary environment is gaining momentum. Here’s what you should know about the most common inflation hedges.

1. Gold

Some say gold is over-hyped, because not only does it not pay interest or dividends, but it also does poorly when the economy is doing well. Central banks, who own most of the world’s gold, can also deflate its price by selling some of its stockpile. Gold’s popularity might be partially linked to the “gold standard”, which is the way countries used to value its currency. The U.S. hasn’t used the gold standard since 1933.

Still, gold’s stability in a crisis could be good for investors who need to diversify their assets or for someone who’s very risk-averse. 

If you want to buy physical gold, you can get gold bars or coins — but these can be risky to store and cumbersome to sell. It can also be hard to determine their value if they have a commemorative or artistic design or are gold-plated. Another option is to buy gold stocks or mutual funds. 

Get Started With Oxford Gold Group

Is gold right for you? You’ll need to determine how much risk you’re willing to tolerate with your investments since gold offers a low risk but also a low reward. 

Pros

  • Physical asset: Gold is a physical asset in limited supply so it tends to hold its value. 
  • Low correlation: Creating a diversified portfolio means investing in asset classes that don’t move together. Gold has a relatively low correlation to many popular asset classes, helping you potentially hedge your risk.
  • Performs well in recessions: Since many investors see gold as a hedge against uncertainty, it is often in high demand during a recession.

Cons

  • No dividends: Gold doesn’t pay any dividends; the only way to make money on gold is to sell it. 
  • Speculative: Gold creates no value on its own. It’s not a business that builds products or employs workers, thereby growing the economy. Its price is merely driven by supply and demand.
  • Not good during low inflation: Since gold doesn’t have a huge upside, during periods of low inflation investors generally prefer taking larger risks and will thereby sell gold, driving down its price.

2. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Buying real estate can be messy — it takes a long time, there are many extra fees, and at the end of the process, you have a property you need to manage. Buying REITs, however, is simple.

REITs provide a hedge for investors who need to diversify their portfolio and want to do so by getting into real estate. They’re listed on major stock exchanges and you can buy shares in them like you would any other stock.

If you’re considering a REIT as an inflation hedge you’ll want to start your investment process by researching which REITs you’re interested in. There are REITs in many industries such as health care, mortgage or retail. 

Learn More About REITs with Realty Mogul

Choose an industry that you feel most comfortable with, then assess the specific REITs in that industry. Look at their balance sheets and review how much debt they have. Since REITs must give 90% of their income to shareholders they often use debt to finance their growth. A REIT that carries a lot of debt is a red flag.

Pros

  • No corporate tax: No matter how profitable they become, REITs pay zero corporate tax.
  • High dividends: REITs must disperse at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders, most pay out 100%.
  • Diversified class: REITs give you a way to invest in real estate and diversify your assets if you’re primarily invested in equities.

Cons

  • Sensitive to interest rate: REITs can react strongly to interest rate increases.
  • Large tax consequences: The government treats REITs as ordinary income, so you won’t receive the reduced tax rate that the government uses to assess other dividends.
  • Based on property values: The value of your shares in a REIT will fall if property values decline.

3. Aggregate Bond Index

A bond is an investment security — basically an agreement that an investor will lend money for a specified time period. You earn a return when the entity to whom you loaned money pays you back, with interest. A bond index fund invests in a portfolio of bonds that hope to perform similarly to an identified index. Bonds are typically considered to be safe investments, but the bond market can be complicated.

If you’re just getting started with investing, or if you don’t have time to research the bond market, an aggregate bond index can be helpful because it has diversification built into its premise. 

Of course, with an aggregate bond index you run the risk that the value of your investment will decrease as interest rates increase. This is a common risk if you’re investing in bonds — as the interest rate rises, older issued bonds can’t compete with new bonds that earn a higher return for their investors. 

Be sure to weigh the credit risk to see how likely it is that the bond index will be downgraded. You can determine this by reviewing its credit rating. 

Pros

  • Diversification: You can invest in several bond types with varying durations, all within the same fund.
  • Good for passive investment: Bond index funds require less active management to maintain, simplifying the process of investing in bonds.
  • Consistency: Bond indexes pay a return that’s consistent with the market. You’re not going to win big, but you probably won’t lose big either.

Cons

  • Sensitive to interest rate fluctuations: Bond index funds invested in government securities (a common investment) are particularly sensitive to changes to the federal interest rate.
  • Low reward: Bond index funds are typically stable investments, but will likely generate smaller returns over time than a riskier investment.

4. 60/40 Portfolio

Financial advisors used to highly recommend a 60/40 stock-bond mix to create a diversified investment portfolio that hedged against inflation. However, in recent years that advice has come under scrutiny and many leading financial experts no longer recommend this approach. 

Instead, investors recommend even more diversification and what’s called an “environmentally balanced” portfolio which offers more consistency and does better in down markets. If you’re considering a 60/40 mix, do your research to compare how this performs against an environmentally balanced approach over time before making your final decision.

Learn More About 60/40 Portfolios with Facet

Pros

  • Simple rule of thumb: Learning how to diversify your portfolio can be hard, the 60/40 method simplifies the process.
  • Low risk: The bond portion of the diversified portfolio serves to mitigate the risk and hedge against inflation.
  • Low cost: You likely don’t have to pay an advisor to help you build a 60/40 portfolio, which can eliminate some of the cost associated with investing.

Cons

  • Not enough diversification: Financial managers are now suggesting even greater diversification with additional asset classes, beyond stocks and bonds.
  • Not a high enough return: New monetary policies and the growth of digital technology are just a few of the reasons why the 60/40 mix doesn’t perform in current times the same way it did during the peak of its popularity in the 1980s and 1990s.

5. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)

Since TIPS are indexed for inflation they’re one of the most reliable ways to guard yourself against high inflation. Also, every six months they pay interest, which could provide you with a small return. 

You can buy TIPS from the Treasury Direct system in maturities of five, 10 or 30 years. Keep in mind that there’s always the risk of deflation when it comes to TIPS. You’re always guaranteed a minimum of your original principal at maturity, but inflation could impact your interest earnings.

Pros

  • Low risk: Treasury bonds are backed by the federal government. 
  • Indexed for inflation: TIPS will automatically increase its principle to compensate for inflation. You’ll never receive less than your principal at maturity.
  • Interest payments keep pace with inflation: The interest rate is determined based on the inflation-adjusted principal. 

Cons

  • Low rate of return: The interest rate is typically very low, other secure investments that don’t adjust for inflation could be higher. 
  • Most desirable in times of high inflation: Since the rate of return for TIPS is so low, the only way to get a lot of value from this investment is to hold it during a time when inflation increases and you need protection. If inflation doesn’t increase, there could be a significant opportunity cost.

The Bottom Line 

Inflation represents a real risk for investors as it could erode the principal value of your investment. Make sure your investments are keeping pace with inflation, at a minimum. 

Inflation hedges can protect some of your assets from inflation. Although you don’t always have to put your money in inflation hedges, they can be helpful if you notice the market is heading into an inflationary period. 

The post 5 Best Hedges in the Face of Inflation appeared first on Good Financial Cents®.

Source: goodfinancialcents.com